Story and curation by Ömer Sirkecioğlu
Climate change is no longer just an academic discussion. Its effects have become a daily reality. Rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, and more frequent extreme weather events are impacting not only the environment but society as a whole. For Turkey, a country located at the crossroads of different climate zones, the consequences are diverse and accelerating.
The past few years have made this reality clear. In 2021, the Marmara Sea was choked by marine mucilage, exposing the fragility of its marine ecosystems. That same year, devastating wildfires swept across the Mediterranean and Aegean regions, destroying forests and wiping out local livelihoods. In the Black Sea region, catastrophic floods left hundreds homeless. These events revealed the deep social impacts of the climate crisis. Professor Ömer Lütfi Şen warns that these effects will grow even more severe, threatening Turkey’s water, food, and energy security.
Climate change is emerging as a major factor deeply affecting Turkey’s economic, social, and environmental dynamics. The Mediterranean Basin, in particular, is one of the regions where the impacts of global warming are being felt most intensely. It is also among the areas most affected by climate change worldwide.
Over the past fifty years, average temperatures in Turkey have risen by 1.5°C, exceeding the global average. According to the 2021 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), if no effective measures are taken, temperatures in Turkey’s southern regions could rise by as much as 5°C by the end of this century. Such an increase poses serious threats across many areas, from agricultural production to public health.
In the summer of 2021, Turkey experienced the largest wildfires in its history. The fires, which broke out across the Mediterranean and Aegean regions, destroyed nearly 140,000 hectares of forest. Scientists confirm that these fires were directly linked to rising temperatures and prolonged droughts.
According to a report by the Turkish Foresters Association, biodiversity in the affected areas suffered severe damage. Experts warn that it could take decades for these ecosystems to recover.
Similarly, in the autumn of 2021, devastating floods in the Western Black Sea region revealed the impact of extreme rainfall. In the district of Bozkurt in Kastamonu, the floods claimed the lives of more than 80 people.
According to the Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS), the amount of rainfall in the area in just one day was three times higher than the annual average.
These events exposed the shortcomings of infrastructure and emergency response systems in coping with the effects of climate change.
In addition to rising temperatures and natural disasters, climate change is emerging as a powerful driver of migration, reshaping social and economic structures. Turkey, due to its geographic location and social dynamics, is among the countries feeling this crisis most intensely. Drought and agricultural collapse in the Middle East and North Africa are forcing millions of people to leave their homes, positioning Turkey as both a transit and destination country.
According to a report by the Turkish Academy of Sciences (TÜBA), an estimated 200 million people worldwide could be displaced by climate change by 2050. Turkey, located along the main migration routes of the Mediterranean Basin, faces significant risks from this crisis. In particular, migration from agricultural communities in border regions, where water resources are rapidly diminishing, could lead to intense population growth in urban areas.
Understanding the impacts of climate change and exploring ways to address them requires examining the issue from multiple perspectives. Studies focusing on changes in rainfall patterns, agriculture, urbanization, and social impacts offer valuable insights. In addition, expert analyses help us better grasp the current situation.
In this context, the views of Professor Ömer Lütfi Şen, who has closely studied the effects and potential consequences of climate change in Turkey, provide important scientific perspective on the issue.
In a warming atmosphere, rainfall characteristics inevitably change, to varying degrees. As temperatures rise, the proportion of precipitation that falls as snow decreases, while rainfall becomes more dominant. This shift leads to changes in hydrological processes on the ground.
A warmer atmosphere can also hold more moisture, which increases the potential for more intense rainfall events. These changes are now observable in Turkey through long-term data. In particular, a statistically significant decrease in rainfall has been recorded in the southwestern regions of the country.
Observations to date indicate that the decline in rainfall has already begun in the southwestern regions of Turkey.
In the future, the most significant decreases in rainfall are expected in the Aegean, Mediterranean, and Southeastern Anatolia regions.
Changes in rainfall patterns are expected to have negative impacts across all sectors in Turkey. Rising temperatures are causing precipitation to fall more as rain rather than snow, and snow cover is melting earlier in the year. This reduces water infiltration into the soil while increasing surface runoff. Lower soil moisture negatively affects dry farming. In irrigated agriculture, the timing of water availability is increasingly out of sync with when it is most needed. This increases the demand for water storage, but the longer water remains in reservoirs, the more is lost through evaporation. As a result, water resources are under strain, which in turn places additional stress on agriculture and the energy sector.
Livestock farming is also expected to suffer, particularly due to the decline in dry farming and reduced productivity of grazing lands. Studies show that livestock production in Turkey is at increasing risk from climate change. Drought and land degradation are expected to further reduce the availability and quality of pasture areas.
Turkey’s cities are generally poor in green spaces. In other words, most urban areas in Turkey have not adopted the concept of “sponge cities.” As a result, they are more vulnerable to heavy rainfall, increasing the risk of urban floods and waterlogging. These events can lead to significant loss of life and property.
Research shows that marginalized and low-income communities, particularly those living in urban slums, are the most vulnerable to climate-related risks in cities.
The “Sponge City” concept has emerged as a sustainable urban planning model to address flooding and water management issues caused by climate change and rapid urbanization. Cities like Wuhan in China, Singapore, and Rotterdam in the Netherlands are leading examples of this approach.
By incorporating green roofs, rain gardens, and permeable pavements, sponge cities reduce flood risks while protecting underground water resources. They promote sustainable living by improving water management and increasing biodiversity.
Climate change can be described as a trend. Temperatures rise, and rainfall tends to either decrease or increase. For this reason, the most critical period is always the one that lies ahead. Tomorrow will be tougher than today, and the day after tomorrow tougher than tomorrow. This is the nature of climate as reflected in long-term averages.
However, because climate can vary from year to year, there may be occasional periods when a given year is cooler or wetter than the previous one. These anomalies are sometimes misinterpreted. Yet as long as the trend of warming and changing precipitation continues driven by greenhouse gas emissions the most critical period will always be the one that follows.
There is a general understanding in Turkey of how climate change is developing and what its impacts are likely to be. Existing studies provide a clear picture of the situation. However, the next step, conducting vulnerability and risk analyses and implementing adaptation strategies, has not yet been fully completed across all sectors. Work in this area is still ongoing.
Public institutions have commissioned projects and reports on climate change, but when it comes to implementing the recommendations of these reports, progress is often slow. This is partly due to uncertainties in the studies themselves, but more often it results from decision-makers and policymakers prioritizing other agendas.
This is the case even though Turkey is recognized as one of the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. At the societal level, there is still a lack of sufficient knowledge and awareness about climate change. As a result, there is not enough public pressure on policymakers to advance adaptation strategies and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
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